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July 06, 2007

iSpeculation on the iPhone

Air_patrolThe first signs that there might not be insatiable demand for the iPhone have appeared.

First as the Boston Globe reported, Supply seems to be meeting demand. So if lots of folks bought iPhones for speculation, what is the real demand?

MacNN has spotted a flood of iPhones on the East Coast.

Obviously demand is still strong, but most new Apple products when first announced sell out completely.  The iPhone hasn't.

Then there is the news that Apple employees are getting an iPhone.

My guess is that Steve knew for whatever reason the iPhone wasn't going to sell out since it was announced early that Apple employees are getting an iPhone at the end of the month.

Most employees I have talked to are very surprised.  It has been a long time since Apple actually felt it needed its employees to help sell a product or felt like giving them something.

There is one other possible explanation for the Apple employees getting an iPhone.  That would be that rev 2 of the iPhone is so close behind that Steve knows that he will never get rid of the iPhones he has contracted for before the new version hits the streets.

So far no one has stopped by the Cape Carteret office to show me their iPhone.  I will not be holding my breath, but if you happen to be in the Emerald Isle area, I'll even meet you to see a demo.

If it doesn't happen, I understand.   Most people here are more interested in the sunshine, water temperature, and what seafood to have for dinner.

I am sure the iPhone is going to do well with the technological elite.  It will have the same hockey stick demand curve that we have seen with most Apple products except the iPod.

The one thing I know for sure is that the iPhone will have little impact on Apple's computer sales.

If all those iPods could barely move the needle, I doubt the iPhone is going to have much more luck.

Then there is that iBacklash to deal with because of the over hyping of the iPhone.

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