"Another Apple innovation: the robotic spokesman"

I had to laugh when I read my borrowed title line in Joe Nocera's NY Times article, "IPhone Spin Goes Round And Round." (Times Select subscription required)

The author was trying to get a straight answer from Apple on the iPhone battery which has to be replaced by Apple.  He found Apple's only response was to repeat a stock answer which didn't come close to answering his question.

Anyone who has worked for a time at Apple can relate to his frustration.

We had a similar circular experience with our Apple executives in 2002 when many of the federal magazines were interested in determining if Apple was serious about the federal market.

We could not get our executives to talk at all, but they finally did send a canned PR statement that said something about how successful Apple was in the design and publishing markets.  It didn't come close to answering the question.

Apple is even better at being a PR machine than it is at getting new products out the door.  Being a PR machine means controlling the message.  No one does that better than Apple.

I really got a kick out of this part of Mr. Nocera's article.

So I asked her the same question I'd been asking Mr. Dowling: how was Apple going to handle battery replacement? ''I'll look into that and get back to you,'' she said cheerily. I could hear someone standing next to her say: ''We're not talking about that.''

The ''We're not talking about that'' response is so much a part of Apple that I am surprised it doesn't have an acronym within the company.

Everyone thinks Apple is this really together company that has all its ducks in a row at product launch.  That is often not the case.

I believe it was Panther that shipped nearly on time and yet it took over six months for Apple to decide what to say about Panther's security.

The Xserve was a great example.  Apple shipped it, finally figured that the target market wasn't former AppleShare users, and then called in the field and had the field teach itself how to sell the product.  Apple corporate certainly wasn't ready for the Xserve and its capabilities.

There are also things that Apple really just doesn't like to talk about even to people inside Apple.  We used to think it was a conspiracy to keep the field in the dark, but often it was something far simpler, Apple's planning is far from exhaustive.   It is not unusual for a certain scenario to be missed with the result being that Apple doesn't  know what to say.

My favorite was NetBoot.  We had a large customer who wanted to Netboot two hundred systems.  We kept being assured that it had been well tested but no one would give us details.  Eventually we figured out that "well tested" meant that it had booted three whole systems at once.  We arranged our own test of a couple of hundred systems at Va. Tech's Math Emporium.

Part of this is that Apple doesn't do a good job of testing products in customer hands because practically all testing before shipment is done in house due to secrecy requirements.

As Mr. Nocera says...

Go without a cellphone while Apple is replacing the battery? From where I'm sitting, this is classic Apple behavior. It is perfectly happy to sell you the coolest $599 device you've ever seen. Just don't expect them to be especially helpful when it runs into problems.

OS X is another example of a great product as long as it doesn't run into problems. It has a gorgeous user interface and is a piece of cake to install unless something goes wrong. 

Don't get me wrong, OS X is an order of magnitude better than anything else out there, but it might be nice to have some options besides starting all over again.

Still these comments are just nits about a company that continues to do well, though I don't think the computer sales numbers are stellar.

I am impressed that Apple is finally growing its market, but Apple's success needs to be viewed with a little perspective.

First the best way to estimate where Apple market share will end up is to measure Apple's year to year growth as a percentage of the industry's  year to year growth.

I am estimating Apple to finish the year with sales of slightly over 6.8 million Macs.  That's a growth of approximately 1.5 million Macs.  With the industry forecast to grow about 25 million units, that puts Apple at about 6% of the growth.  Unless Apple comes out with some other really cool computers soon, I would guess that Apple would tend towards slightly more than 6% market share since Macs last a little longer.   That is nothing to sneeze at since they have doubled market share in a few years.

As a little reality check I would throw out this one statistic.  From 2000 through the end of this year the forecast is that worldwide shipments of PCs will have more than doubled in those seven years.  That is assuming they hit the forecast number of 264 million units.

That is not the case for Apple.  Assuming Apple finishes the year close to 6.8 million units, they will have grown their units only 50% since 2000.

Apple has always chosen profit over market share.  It is a credit to the quality of the products that what was a very anemic piece of the market, now is headed towards a relatively healthy piece of the market and still a very profitable one.

Still I have to wonder what computer magic Apple has left to deliver?  Will it be enough to take Apple to another level or will this be Apple's high water point with computers? As PCs head for areas where Apple's price points just won't fly how will Apple respond?

Then there is the mystery of all the unactivated iPhones.  Did Steve's power finally backfire?  Are there people out there who bought iPhones just to be cool with no intention of activating them?

It has been over a year since I have purchased a computer either Mac or Windows, and I am feeling no pain.  There are no new apps to drag me to a new computer, but I remain ready to be seduced by some great hardware and software.

The iPhone wasn't it for me, so Steve if you want my money,  I need to be amazed once again.

Comments

[JonJ]

Hey, Apple is a huge corporation (not nearly as huge as you-know-who, but ...). Huge corporations are not known generally to be super-smooth at consumer and public relations. Even we individuals are known to try to spin things to preserve our public images now and then.

It's been over a year since I got my MacBook Pro also, and I don't plan to replace it until I have to -- perhaps a few years from now. I'll eventually migrate from Tiger to Leopard, but not as soon as it appears, for sure.

I guess one problem Apple has is that its products tend to be so good (once the initial hiccups are over) that they last for a while. Hence the need to be constantly convincing consumers that the next insanely great product is just around the corner, so we must throw away our perfectly good, but "outdated," last "insanely great" product and grab up the next one.

Well, my cell phone works just fine, thanks, so I don't think I'll bother with the iPhone for several years. By then it may have evolved into something worthwhile.

[Stephen]

I remember that meeting all too well. Mike Hardy at FCW was the reporter who had been bugging us for years to do a story on Apple's Federal Sales strategy. Most vendors would do anything to have a publication describe their sales strategy in detail.

I remember specifically telling the Apple PR staff droids that FCW did NOT want to hear about Apple products.

What FCW did want to hear about was Apple's business strategy for penetrating a super saturated market with entrenched Windows/Dell/HP.

Of course, the Apple VPs who had been briefed/directed by Apple PR, kept trying to talk about products, and predictably, looked like complete idiots.

[DBL]

"OS X is another example of a great product as long as it doesn't run into problems. It is an absolutely wonderful product unless something doesn't go right. It has a gorgeous user interface and is a piece of cake to install unless something goes wrong."
You'd think that a rational person would be unable to repeat this point three times in quick succession without noticing that it describes every single product ever made. Are we supposed to think that stuff like this is any deeper than PR-speak? If you want us to think you 'deeper' than that, then I'm afraid you are going to have to take your brain off the treadmill and actually use it to read your own writing.

[ocracokewaves]

Perhaps you haven't written very many articles and acted as your own editor. Sometimes you write something quickly, a couple of different ways, and you forget to take one of them out.

I appreciate your pointing that I had forgotten to take one of the phrases out. I have deleted the second phrase.

Actually I have written many times in detail about problems with OS X, you might have missed them if you are a new reader since I have well over 200 posts on Apple.

Actually I don't think what I said describes very many products. Based on my experience with Windows and most versions of Linux, I can't think that describes either one of them.

"OS X certainly not perfect"

http://viewfromthemountain.typepad.com/applepeels/2007/01/os_x_certainly_.html

"Apple Consistency"

http://viewfromthemountain.typepad.com/applepeels/2006/01/apple_consisten.html

"The ultimate irony for Apple"

http://viewfromthemountain.typepad.com/applepeels/2005/05/the_ultimate_ir.html

That would especially be the case of SUSE Linux and actually any Linux. SUSE actually has a great interface but is a pain to install and even worse to maintain.

"The Curse of SUSE Linux"

http://viewfromthemountain.typepad.com/david_sobotta_weblog/2005/12/the_curse_of_su.html

Ubuntu which is my favorite right now won't install period after I recently rescued my PC from a power failure.

" My Mac saves my PC once again"

http://viewfromthemountain.typepad.com/applepeels/2007/04/my_mac_saves_my.html

I can think of some good but not great products which are hard to install and have a lousy user interface. Still they meet a real need.

My HP C6180 Printer would fit in that category.

"HP AIO Photosmart C6180 and Mac OSX"

http://viewfromthemountain.typepad.com/david_sobotta_weblog/2006/10/hp_aio_photosma.html

I have seen products like my Harmony Remote which is great innovation but has a lousy installation user interface and is terrible to install. The user interface for running it once installed is actually very good.

"The technology funk"

http://viewfromthemountain.typepad.com/david_sobotta_weblog/2006/11/the_technology_.html

Finaly there are products like the GPS in our Toyota Avalon which have a gorgeous user interface and which are nearly worthless because of built-in limitations.

"GPS a great road warrior tool"

http://viewfromthemountain.typepad.com/david_sobotta_weblog/2005/12/gps_a_great_roa.html

There are plenty of products out there that work great most of the time and sometimes not.

I happen to have used a lot of Apple products so I have seen the upside and the downside.

I even make recommendations on lawn mowers based on my experience.

"The best walk behind mower in the land"

http://viewfromthemountain.typepad.com/david_sobotta_weblog/2007/08/the-best-walk-b.html

I don't write about anything that I don't use.

[Jeff]

You said: "Steve if you want my money, I need to be amazed once again."

Just curious, but are you amazed by anything announced Tuesday? iWork has a trial version too, if you need to get hands on before becoming amazed.

I was pleased with what was announced yesterday, but I certainly wasn't amazed by anything. Of course I could have missed something.

I will likely order new copies of iLife and iWork.

If the new iMac came with a coupon for a free upgrade to Leopard, I might even order one but not because it amazed me.

I think the price is very reasonable for the performance. It does leave a gaping hole in Apple's lineup between the iMacs and the desktops, but that is not new.

Even Bill Gates and the other Windows vendors worked out a program where purchasers of new computers would get a free upgrade.

Apple continues to want to stick it to new customers who will find out in a couple of months that their latest and greatest computer is a generation behind unless they are willing to cough up another $129 or more than 10% of what they paid for their system.

Here's a chat I had with an Apple expert at the online store on the subject. I changed their name just in case this got them in trouble.

* You are chatting with an Apple Expert

*

Hi, my name is Apple Expert. Welcome to Apple!
*

Apple Expert: How may I help you today?
*

You: Do the new iMacs come with a coupon for an upgrade to Leopard or do you have to buy Leopard at full price when it is released in October?
*

Apple Expert: That's a great question, though there hasn't been any information released in regards to upgrades for Leopard.
*

Apple Expert: Historically though, we have had upgrade promotions for previous operating systems, where the price was reduced, though I can't speculate what will happen with Leopard.
*

You: Sorry but I cannot remember anything other than a free upgrade being offered to systems purchased in the last 30 days.
*

You: That's usually the extent of Apple's generosity on upgrades
*

Apple Expert: When Tiger was released it was offered at a discounted price for a short time, though as I said, I can't speculate what will happen with Leopard.
*

You: That "discounted" price was for purchasers of new computers in a certainly time frame?
*

Apple Expert: Just another minute...
*

Apple Expert: It was for upgrades, though I don't rermember the price or what the details were. As I said though, that was for a prior release and I can't speculate on what will happen when with Leopard.
*

You: Sorry there has never been an upgrade program unless it was either the purchasers of the OS or the computers in the previous thirty days. I worked for Apple for twenty years, so I watch those things
*

You: Anyway thanks for you time.
*

Apple Expert: That's great, then you would definitely know. May I assist with anmything else today?
*

You: As usual not all the information is in place and they haven't given you the answers
*

You: No I'll be waiting until Oct. I'm not fond of buying a new computer and turning around and having to pay full price for a new OS two months later.
*

You: Even Bill Gates does not ask folks to do that.
*

Apple Expert: I can definitely understand, though as I said I just don't have the information to give. As soon as we have any information though, we will be happy to share!
*

Apple Expert: May I assist with anything else for today?
*

You: No thanks, thanks for "answering" my question.
*

Apple Expert: Thank you for visiting the Apple Store. We appreciate your business